Future value of land land, Future, value

geo2t94g

I would like to open up a disscussion regarding future value of land in a post-peak world. As we all know farming in the developed world is a fundamentally fossil-fueled based industry requiring huge energy inputs to sustain itself.

As these energy inputs rise in value and eventually lead to shortages, than the price of modern farming will increase. Combined with the credit crunch this could have devastating consequences for farmers. on the other hand, rising prices could lead to big profits for farmers.

How will this play out in regard to farm land prices. Will prices bottom out before they start a long upwards climb as more land is required to feed our population as industrial farming slowly dies out. What would be the best time to invest in land? What kind of income do you get now from farming (or renting land to farmers) and what kind of income streams may u recieve in the future?

7soft189

Land that can produce the most highest EROEI energy, e.g. a fertile field near a population centre with a good wind regime, will become particularly valuable. I'm sure that land which offers the best potential for energy/food production with the lowest energy inputs has always been the most valuable. All other things being equal.

I wonder how many landowners that are sitting on potential windfarm sites, are just biding their time now until the objections of the NIMBYS/BANANAS is swept aside by post peak/CC driven events.

dtngeo

What's land worth in a crisis?

Can you spell 'Compulsory Purchase Order'?

A smallholding is probably safe ... but swathes of 'investment' land will be prime targets for the politicians, the criminal and the corrupt.

twhy2005

I'm in agreement with this. If you can avoid having a holding number, do so. As far as I can see, a holding number puts you right at the top of the list, and not for a compulsory purchase order either, more like commandeered.

whysoftp

And not for the good of the public either. If things get as bad as some are alluding to, then the land will simply be taken by the strongmen for their own uses and to hell with the cities.

91989l20

So that rules out keeping livestock, except poultry up to 50 birds, as I understand it. Is that right? What else can't you do?
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2009pgul

I've written before,  but worth repeating,  there are thousands of perfectly edible plants that most people wouldn't recognise if they were growing on their lawn.  Woodland edges and hedgerows,  sides of footpaths,  parks and gardens are all potential sites for the Guerilla gardener  

91981200

Thanks for the feedback. Assuming in a martial law state the military have effectively taken over the country, probably under a nominally Tory parliamentary government - would we really see large scale land seizure?

Don't forget the military officer corps are staffed with landowning types along with the Etonian dominated Tory party- i would have thought that breaking this basic capitalist right would be kept to a absolute mimiunum, even in a national disaster?

Perhaps i am being naive here - but the class interests of the landowning elite would be more important for upholding basic private property law and order.

19851982

Land prices.  Land use.  How will farmers cope with farming large acreages when oil gets expensive?  Will they employ farm labourers, sell off land that they can't manage or rent it out?

I've seen some arable land - some fields - for sale close to town.  What are the costs of just owning land, not doing anything with or on it?  I'm not in a position to do anything myself yet.

- -

To answer your question Beria3, I think the rulers would appropriate land for themselves and their cronies.  Tory, Labour or BNP I don't think it would matter what their background was.

01985198

Re landed gentry: these would be pro-state through necessity if not through choice.

They would I expect be permitted to take over small parcels of land to add to their holdings, for efficiency reasons.

A mixed smallholding would be much more 'efficient' if, say, operated as a dedicated pig unit managed from Brian Aldriges's huge farm down the road.